The frontrunners for the best jobs in von der Leyen’s next Commission

BRUSSELS — In the scramble for the most wanted portfolios in the next European Commission, only a few countries can win the biggest prizes. 
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is due to announce next week which of the 26 nominated future commissioners will get which job in her second team. 
It’s a complicated puzzle, as she has to balance gender, political party affiliation and geography. On top of that, national leaders and the candidates they’ve sent to Brussels are haggling over the portfolios, hoping to secure a powerful post. Most of the lobbying happens behind closed doors, in direct calls between von der Leyen and country leaders. But some also takes place in public, usually with the goal of pressuring von der Leyen and her team. 
Competitiveness, defense and opening the bloc to future EU members will be core priorities for von der Leyen over the next five years. Portfolios with control over EU money — such as budget, cohesion or financial services — are also desired by national capitals.
Below are some of the major portfolios and who is pursuing them.
Names in the frame: Raffaele Fitto, Magnus Brunner, Tomaž Vesel, Piotr Serafin, Michael McGrath, Jozef Síkela, Maria Luís Albuquerque, Wopke Hoekstra
Economy is one of the most sought-after portfolios, and several current and former finance ministers are among the nominees. Several portfolios could feature an economic element, but not everyone will walk away happy.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has made it clear she wants Italian nominee Raffaele Fitto — a member of her Brothers of Italy party — to have an important economic portfolio.
But there are others who will want a share of the economic pie, including serving finance minister Magnus Brunner (Austria) and former finance ministers Michael McGrath (Ireland) and Maria Luís Albuquerque (Portugal).
Poland’s Piotr Serafin is the classic Brussels insider, having been Donald Tusk’s right-hand man for half a decade after 2014: He is eyeing the budget portfolio, likely one of the most powerful in the next term as the bloc sorts out its seven-year spending plans. 
Tomaž Vesel, former chief at Slovenia’s Court of Auditors, also wants an economic, financial or competitiveness-related portfolio. Vesel is an expert in public procurement and budget administration.
Wopke Hoekstra was Dutch finance minister before becoming a commissioner last October. His nickname, “Mr. No,” owes to his tendency not to heed calls by his colleagues for new funds. On the European stage, Hoekstra’s advocacy of budgetary rigor ― he once said countries that don’t respect the bloc’s spending rules shouldn’t receive EU funds ― has earned him a mixed reputation.
Names in the frame: Valdis Dombrovskis, Thierry Breton
Even before being approved for a second term, von der Leyen was planning to have a new role in her next team — a commissioner responsible for defense. What at first seemed like a key portfolio has lost some of its shine, however. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, long rumored to be Poland’s pick for the role, said in early summer he wasn’t interested (and in the end wasn’t chosen to serve as a commissioner anyway).
But others are interested in a job that could prove very interesting if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November. 
Valdis Dombrovskis — executive vice president and trade commissioner in the outgoing Commission — is a strong candidate for the post of defense commissioner, Latvia’s Defense Minister Andris Sprūds told POLITICO.
France’s Thierry Breton, meanwhile, was responsible for the internal market, defense industry and technology in the first von der Leyen Commission. It’s no secret he wants a promotion (von der Leyen is likely to have several executive vice-presidents in the coming term and no vice-presidents).
“Competitiveness is a top priority in President-elect von der Leyen’s political guidelines, with a focus on addressing remaining structural obstacles, including a new approach to competition policy,” Breton told POLITICO. That said, Breton has a complicated relationship with von der Leyen.
Names in the frame: Christophe Hansen, Wopke Hoekstra, Costas Kadis   
Von der Leyen will be looking for a steadier pair of hands than those of Janusz Wojciechowski, the underperforming Polish farm commissioner whom she sidelined in her first term.
Luxembourg’s Christophe Hansen has sat on his country’s agriculture committee since 2023 and also served on the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee (INTA), where he helped steer national plans for EU farm policy. Hansen comes from a farming family; his cousin, Martine Hansen, is Luxembourg’s agriculture minister.
Wopke Hoekstra (the Netherlands) was brought in to fill the shoes of Green Deal chief Frans Timmermans after the latter’s departure a year ago. He’s seen as more likely to get the trade role than agriculture (see below).
Cyprus nominated former Agriculture Minister and biologist Costas Kadis, who is keen to land the soon-to-be-created Mediterranean post. However, Kadis is also known to be interested in the agriculture portfolio.
Names in the frame: Wopke Hoekstra, Jessika Roswall, Michael McGrath 
With everyone vying for a “big” economic portfolio that would include competitiveness, industry or financial services, trade policy isn’t as sought-after as in past Commissions, especially now that von der Leyen has put trade below economic security in her second-term policy priorities. 
A senior official close to the ongoing negotiations said trade would likely be a “simple” commissioner job — and no longer part of the broader remit of an executive vice-president, as was the case with Dombrovskis.
The official, granted anonymity to discuss the secret talks, said they now revolved around whether to include trade in the remit of the foreign affairs chief. Another option, they added, could be an executive vice-president for economic affairs — including trade.
The front-runner for the trade job is Wopke Hoekstra — who was renominated by the incoming Dutch coalition after a stint as EU climate chief. The Hague hopes he’ll be given a financial or economic portfolio, given his good relationship with von der Leyen. 
Hoekstra stressed Monday that the EU should admit it has a “China problem.” That positions him as a hawk in the trade fight over Beijing’s subsidies for its electric-vehicle makers, a spat that will culminate in a few weeks when EU countries vote to confirm provisional import duties on Chinese EVs.
Sweden, under Cecilia Malmström, held the trade post from 2014 to 2019, and Stockholm is eager to see its new pick, Jessika Roswall, get the job this time as well in a bid to revive the EU’s free-trade agenda. 
However, Sweden might be too pro-free trade to be allowed to helm trade policy in the next five years, especially given the new focus on trade defense. Stockholm has criticized the investigation launched by Brussels into Chinese electric vehicles, and Roswall has indicated she’d be interested in working on topics related to the war in Ukraine, competitiveness and climate issues.
A third pick might be Ireland’s Michael McGrath, who is also eyeing an economic portfolio (see above). But after former trade chief Phil Hogan was brought down by the “Golfgate” scandal, choosing another Irish trade commissioner might be a hard sell. 
Names in the frame: Henna Virkkunen, Maria Luís Albuquerque
The track record of Henna Virkkunen makes her almost a no-brainer for a technology or innovation brief (or a combination of the two). Back in Finland she served as education minister for three years, while as an EU lawmaker she worked on several high-profile tech and innovation files, such as the bloc’s content moderation regime and the flagship R&D program Horizon Europe. Last month, when her candidacy was already public knowledge, she published a blog on how innovation can boost EU competitiveness. Bonus points: Virkkunen loves horses, as does von der Leyen. 
Portugal’s Maria Luís Albuquerque has also been rumored for a tech position — her country has held the innovation portfolio in the past (with Carlos Moedas), while Albuquerque sits on an advisory board for universities.
Names in the frame: Jozef Síkela, Julian Popov, Dan Jørgensen, Teresa Ribera
Jozef Síkela, currently the Czech industry and trade minister, would prefer an industry or energy portfolio in von der Leyen’s Commission, according to a Czech government official; Die Welt reported he will get the latter. Sikela displayed a talent for getting people together during the energy crisis, when the Czech Republic led the Council and EU countries agreed measures for coordinated gas purchases.
Julian Popov of Bulgaria until recently served as his country’s minister of environment and water, and used to be a political adviser for Central and Eastern Europe at the European Climate Foundation. However, as Bulgaria was the only country to nominate both a man and a woman — and as Popov is the male half of that duo — he is unlikely to get a spot on von der Leyen’s team.
Denmark’s Dan Jørgensen was minister for climate and energy from 2019 to 2022; for the past two years he has led a ministry in charge of development cooperation and global climate policy. 
Spain’s Teresa Ribera is seen as a strong choice for a climate role, with decades of experience, endless high-profile contacts and a good reputation. However, she is a hardened nuclear skeptic.
Names in the frame: Valdis Dombrovskis, Olivér Várhelyi
Von der Leyen has pledged to create a separate dedicated commissioner for enlargement, evidence of the increased importance of the portfolio. Following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine the EU opened accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, and there is now a renewed enlargement push toward the Western Balkans. The next accession steps for all these countries require not just a lot of technical and legal work but also political maneuvering, both with the countries concerned and within the EU.
Latvian Valdis Dombrovskis is also in the mix, as the Baltics have been pushing hard for Ukraine to accede to the bloc. A candidate from a Central or Eastern European country could bring key insights to the portfolio, but could also be seen as less neutral on enlargement.
Hungary has said it wants to keep the enlargement portfolio for its nominee, Olivér Várhelyi, but stands little chance given Budapest’s resistance to enlargement and Várhelyi’s poor track record (he’ll also need to survive his European Parliament hearing).
Names in the frame: Roxana Mînzatu, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, Ekaterina Zaharieva
Not necessarily the flashiest portfolio, cohesion is nevertheless one of the most consequential as it oversees around a third of the EU budget and manages funding programs that cut across other portfolios. Cohesion could get a new name that fits better with an investment-focused Commission, possibly being renamed ‘regional investment’.
The significance of cohesion will also be tied to the upcoming discussion of the bloc’s next seven-year budget and the likelihood that it will alter the way Brussels distributes funds to poorer areas.
Greece’s pick, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, was governor of the country’s Central Macedonia region and has experience overseeing the implementation of EU funds. Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis has made it known that Athens expects an important portfolio, particularly as he played a significant role in helping von der Leyen secure a second term.
Ekaterina Zaharieva, one of two names put forward by the Bulgarian government, was foreign minister between 2017 and 2021 and also served as minister for justice and for regional development, so her government believes she is qualified for the cohesion portfolio.
Roxana Mînzatu, a last-minute nominee from Romania, is also considered a good fit for the cohesion job as she served as minister for European funds in 2019.
Barbara Moens, Paul Dallison, Camille Gijs, Koen Verhelst, Paula Andres, Jacopo Barigazzi, Max Griera, Giovanna Faggionato, Victor Jack and Karl Mathiesen contributed to this article.